https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/146507 2026-07-25T16:12:17Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/148160 Title: Forecasting the EUR/PLN exchange rate using classical and artificial intelligence methods : an empirical comparison of ARIMA, XGBoost, LSTM and hybrid models on NBP data 2015-2026 Authors: Bukowski, Sławomir; Bukowska, Joanna; Wołoszyn, Jacek; Molga, Agnieszka Abstract: PURPOSE: The primary objective of this paper is to conduct an empirical assessment of the forecasting performance of various exchange rate prediction approaches and to investigate whether contemporary machine learning techniques and hybrid modeling frameworks are capable of outperforming traditional econometric models.; DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: This paper presents an empirical comparison of four approaches to short-term daily EUR/PLN exchange rate forecasting: the classical ARIMA(1,1,1) model, the gradient boosting algorithm XGBoost, a single-layer LSTM recurrent neural network, and a hybrid ARIMA+XGBoost model. Experiments were conducted on daily data from the National Bank of Poland spanning 2 January 2015 to 27 February 2026 (2,815 observations), using a rolling one-step-ahead forecast procedure and a train/test split with the final year as an out-of-sample evaluation period (252 observations).; FINDINGS: Results indicate that ARIMA(1.1.1) achieves the lowest error (RMSE=0.0107, MAPE=0.17%), marginally outperforming XGBoost (MAPE=0.19%) and LSTM (MAPE=0.29%). The hybrid ARIMA+XGBoost model, however, exhibits an anomalous result (MAPE=2.35%), generating a near-constant forecast line at approximately 4.14 PLN throughout the entire test period a result thirteen times worse than the standalone ARIMA benchmark. This anomaly, visible as a flat line in the forecast visualization, constitutes an open methodological question addressed in the second part of this series.; PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The methodologies and empirical findings presented in this paper may provide practical value for organizations for which exchange rate forecasting plays a critical role. These include, in particular, corporations, financial institutions, and central banks, all of which continuously seek advanced approaches to currency risk management, financial instrument valuation, economic monitoring, and decision-making in international trade.; ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The paper contributes to the literature on exchange rate forecasting by assessing the performance of contemporary artificial intelligence methods and hybrid modeling approaches in a real-world financial market environment. Furthermore, it identifies novel methodological issues that warrant further investigation and provide directions for future research. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/148157 Title: Consumption logic dominance index (CLDI) : toward a dynamic adaptive consumption logic model Authors: Al-Sharhan, Salah; Thalassinos, Eleftherios; Simintiras, Antonis Abstract: PURPOSE: Contemporary consumers increasingly operate under conditions characterized by economic instability, technological disruption, political volatility, environmental crises, and social fragmentation. Existing consumer behavior theories inadequately explain how consumers dynamically adapt their consumption orientations under persistent uncertainty. This article develops the concept of the Consumption Logic Dominance Index (CLDI) as the core mechanism of a broader Dynamic Adaptive Consumption Logic Model (DACLM). The framework proposes that consumers continuously shift between two orthogonal consumption logics: Identity-Based Consumption Logic (IBCL) and Transaction-Based Consumption Logic (TBCL). Rather than conceptualizing these orientations as opposite ends of a continuum, the model argues that they coexist simultaneously and vary independently across contexts and time.; DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The article develops the theoretical foundations of the DACLM by integrating insights from consumer culture theory, behavioral decision research, uncertainty management theory, and adaptive consumption perspectives. The paper conceptualizes the orthogonal structure of IBCL and TBCL and introduces the CLDI as a dynamic measurement mechanism capturing the relative dominance and interaction of these consumption logics. In addition, the study proposes potential empirical operationalization approaches suitable for quantitative, longitudinal, and mixed-method research designs.; FINDINGS: The framework suggests that consumer behavior under uncertainty is best understood as a dynamic regulatory process rather than a stable preference structure. Consumers continuously recalibrate the relative dominance of identity-driven and transaction-driven consumption orientations in response to contextual instability and environmental change. The model further indicates that shifts in consumption logic influence decision-making, value prioritization, digital consumption behavior, and adaptive coping strategies.; PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: This article introduces the Consumption Logic Dominance Index (CLDI) as a novel conceptual and measurement framework for understanding adaptive consumption behavior. By reconceptualizing consumption logics as orthogonal and dynamically interacting dimensions, the study advances consumer theory beyond traditional continuum-based models.; ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The article contributes to consumer research, sustainability studies, digital consumption scholarship, and uncertainty management theory while offering new directions for empirical investigation and marketplace analysis. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/148154 Title: Essential governance competences of board chairs in Maltese listed entities Authors: Baldacchino, Peter J.; Raggio, Emily; Ellul, Lauren; Tabone, Norbert; Grima, Simon Abstract: PURPOSE: This study examines the adequacy of the current fit-and-proper framework regulating board chairpersons in Maltese listed entities and explores stakeholder perceptions regarding the competences required for effective chairing.; DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: A mixed-methods qualitative approach was adopted through 42 semi-structured interviews conducted with chairpersons, directors, company secretaries, executives, and governance specialists involved in Maltese listed entities.; FINDINGS: The findings reveal broad support for fit-and-proper testing as a baseline governance safeguard, although respondents favoured greater proportionality and flexibility, particularly regarding formal qualifications and experience requirements. Leadership, interpersonal, and business-related competences emerged as critical determinants of board effectiveness, with leadership capability identified as especially influential in shaping board dynamics and strategic oversight. While respondents generally opposed substantially stricter scrutiny for chairpersons compared to other directors, greater emphasis was placed on leadership responsibilities and time commitment. The study also highlights the need for clearer regulatory guidance and more structured chairperson development initiatives.; PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest that regulators and listed entities should adopt a more proportionate and competency-focused approach to fit-and-proper assessments while strengthening leadership development and guidance for board chairpersons.; ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study contributes to the corporate governance literature by linking regulatory suitability assessments with practical board leadership effectiveness within the underexplored context of Maltese listed entities. Description: This article is, in the main, based on a dissertation submitted in May 2025 by Emily Raggio, supervised by Peter J. Baldacchino, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the master’s in accountancy degree in the Department of Accountancy at the Faculty of Economics, Management and Accountancy at the University of Malta. All authors have consented. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/148153 Title: Comprehensiveness of services as an organizational model in a micro-medical enterprise : a case study Authors: Kocot, Maria; Kwasek, Artur; Piguła, Anna; Marek, Sylwia; Milewski, Leonard; Weremczuk, Arkadiusz; Golińska-Pieszyńska, Małgorzata Abstract: PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to analyze the comprehensiveness of services as an organizational model in a micro-medical enterprise and to identify the key organizational factors that support the integration of service processes within a single medical entity.; DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The study adopts a qualitative research approach based on the case study method. Empirical data were collected through a semi-structured in-depth interview with the owner of a micro-medical enterprise operating in the healthcare sector and supplemented by an analysis of organizational documentation. The collected material was subjected to qualitative content analysis focused on identifying mechanisms supporting service integration, coordination of activities, and continuity of patient care.; FINDINGS: The results indicate that the comprehensiveness of services should be understood not only as a broad scope of medical services, but primarily as the effective integration of diagnostic, therapeutic, and control processes within one organization. The study demonstrates that work organization, coordination mechanisms, resource management, and competency development play a crucial role in ensuring service continuity and improving organizational efficiency. The comprehensive service model contributes to shortening treatment pathways, limiting referrals to external facilities, enhancing patient comfort, and strengthening the competitive position of the enterprise.; PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest that micro-medical enterprises should treat service comprehensiveness as a coherent organizational strategy rather than solely an expansion of service offerings. Effective integration of processes and appropriate coordination mechanisms may improve operational efficiency, patient service quality, and organizational consistency. The study also highlights the importance of investing in technical resources and professional competencies to support integrated healthcare delivery.; ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The article contributes to the literature by presenting an empirical analysis of service comprehensiveness in the context of a micro-medical enterprise, an area that remains relatively underexplored in organizational and healthcare management studies. The research extends existing theoretical discussions by demonstrating how integrated service models function in practice and by identifying organizational conditions necessary for their effective implementation. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z