https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/16885 2026-06-07T03:31:41Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33779 Title: Did Malta's accession to the EU raise its potential growth? : a focus on the foreign workforce Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact on Malta's potential output growth caused by increased migration. Administrative data show that the proportion of foreign workers has risen from 1.3% of the workforce in 2000 to 10.1% in 2014. While the bulk of these migrants are in managerial, professional, and technical occupations, there are a growing number in blue-collar occupations, along with clerical or auxiliary jobs. Migrant workers is concentrated in certain sectors, with half of them in (1) entertainment and recreation, (2) professional services and administrative support, and (3) hotels and restaurants. The estimates presented here suggest that from 2010 to 2014, foreign workers contributed annually to 0.6 percentage points of potential output growth, helping to boost it to an average of 2.5% per annum, one of the highest in the Euro area, and slightly above the average observed during the years immediately preceding Malta's admission to the European Union 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33777 Title: Comparing state pension reforms in EU countries before and after 2008 Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: Many EU countries have been carrying out substantial state pension reforms since the mid-1990s. This article studies whether the reforms that were carried out in ten EU countries before and after the 2008 financial crisis are different. This is done through an analysis of the different elements of these reforms and also by comparing pension entitlements after each set of reforms. The main conclusion is that the pre-crisis reforms were much stronger and had a more negative impact on women than the post-crisis reforms. It is harder to determine whether this represents a temporary break in the reform process or a permanent change in the orientation of pension reforms in these ten countries. 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33776 Title: The impact of pension age changes - the case of Malta Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: After remaining unchanged for several decades, the pension age in Malta started to rise in 2012. This process, which will continue until 2026, was introduced to help boost the workforce and partially countervail the impact of the country’s demographic transition. The scope of this article is to review evidence on the impact to date of these changes and to use this to try to understand the potential impact of remaining pension age changes. 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33775 Title: Empirical estimates of Okun’s law in Malta Authors: Micallef, Brian Abstract: This study presents various empirical estimates of Okun’s Law in Malta for the period 2000-2016. A better understanding of Okun’s relationship is important for the design of macroeconomic policies as well as for forecasting purposes. In Malta, the relationship between output and unemployment is relatively weak compared to other European countries. Among the demand components, unemployment is most sensitive to private consumption and exports. The relationship is also asymmetric, with the response of unemployment to output tending to be more pronounced during recessions. Stability tests suggest that Okun’s relationship is not stable, although the link has become more pronounced in recent years, while the unemployment rate consistent with full employment has been on a downward trend. Estimates from an unobserved components model suggests that Okun’s Law is quite robust at cyclical frequency, with potential time-variation in the relationship being ascribed to the trend components. 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z