https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/32047 Mon, 20 Apr 2026 12:19:07 GMT 2026-04-20T12:19:07Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33781 Title: Estimating the impact of structural reforms to increase the female participation rate in Malta Authors: Micallef, Brian Abstract: Malta registered the largest increase in the female participation rate among European countries since 2008. This increase was driven by various policy initiatives aimed to attract more females to the labour market but also by the changing role of women in society. Furthermore, at 53.8% in 2015, the female participation rate in Malta still remains relatively low by European standards, suggesting further catching-up potential. The trend increase in participation, driven mostly by females, is estimated to have contributed, on average, to 0.8 percentage points per annum to Malta's potential GDP between 2008 and 2015. The impact of reforms is calculated by adjusting the post-2008 participation rate to long run trends in Maltese society, as well as using a cohort model that accounts for the changing demographics and education attainment of the workforce. The median impact of the estimates presented in this paper suggests that around half of the increase in the female participation rate is attributable to reforms. These reforms are estimated to have raised potential GDP growth in Malta by around 0.3 percentage point per annum between 2008 and 2015. Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33781 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33780 Title: What makes pension reforms sustainable? Authors: Grech, Aaron George Abstract: Policymakers pushing pension reforms have tended to justify changes on the basis that they would make systems more sustainable by lowering future spending on pensions. This is a rather narrow interpretation of sustainability that fails to consider that other fiscal programs may need to accommodate the impact of reforms that reduce pension system adequacy. In this light, this article argues that in order to correctly assess the sustainability of pension reforms, one needs to adopt a more holistic framework that encapsulates the interaction between pension system goals and constraints. In a number of countries, reforms focused solely on reducing future spending were followed by reforms that restored generosity. A holistic approach to assess pension sustainability could help limit this cycle of reform and increase trust in pension systems. Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33780 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33773 Title: Constructing an index to examine house price misalignment with fundamentals in Malta Authors: Micallef, Brian Abstract: This paper computes an aggregate misalignment index using a multiple indicator approach to identify under or over-valuation of house prices in Malta based on fundamentals. A total of 6 indicators are used that capture households, investors and system-wide factors: the house price-to-RPI ratio, the price-to-hypothetical borrowing volume ratio, price-to-construction costs ratio, price-to-rent ratio, dwelling investment-to-GDP ratio and the loan bearing capacity. These sub-indices enter the index in gap form and the weights are derived using principal component analysis. The analysis is performed using both the house price indices of the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Malta (CBM), which are based on contract and advertised prices, respectively. House prices in Malta were overvalued by around 20% to 25% in the pre-crisis boom. This disequilibrium started to be corrected following the decline in house prices, with the CBM and NSO house price indices reaching a trough in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Since then, house prices started to recover although the recovery in the advertised price index was more pronounced compared to that based on contract prices. In mid-2017, advertised house prices were slightly overvalued while contract prices still have to reach their equilibrium level. The dynamics from the misalignment index, including its peaks and troughs, are remarkably similar to the range derived from statistical filters. Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33773 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33772 Title: Fiscal compact and debt consolidation dynamics Abstract: We analyse the macroeconomic effects of a debt consolidation policy in the Euro Area mimicking the Fiscal Compact Rule (FCR). The rule requires the signatory states to target a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%. Within the context of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models (DSGE), we augment a fully micro-founded New-Keynesian model with a parametric linear debt consolidation rule, and we analyse the effects on the main macroeconomic aggregates. To fully understand its implications on the economy, we study different debt consolidation scenarios, allowing the excess debt to be re-absorbed with different timings. We show that including a debt consolidation rule can exacerbate the effects of the shocks in the economy by imposing a constraint on the public debt process. Secondly, we note that the effect of loosening or tightening the rule in response to a shock is heterogeneous. Shocks hitting nominal variables (monetary policy shock) are not particularly sensitive. On the contrary, we prove that the same change has a more pronounced effect in case of shock hitting real variables (productivity and public spending shocks). Finally, we show that the macroeconomic framework worsens as a function of the rigidity of the debt consolidation rule. As a limiting case, we show that the effects on output, employment, real wages, inflation,and interest rates are sizable. Fri, 01 Jun 2018 00:00:00 GMT https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/33772 2018-06-01T00:00:00Z