Contemporary dynamics and the future of the Indian Ocean

Abstract

The Indian Ocean has emerged as a critical maritime space in the Asia Pacific region given its highly volatile geopolitical, geostrategic, security and economic significance. The potential sea lines of communication and safe passage through chokepoints in the Indian Ocean have become major strategic concerns for both regional and extra-regional powers. With the Post-Cold War period at an end, the Indian Ocean has entered a stage where both regional and extra-regional powers are competing for the security of energy, trade and commerce in the Persian Gulf, Middle East and Africa. Given the mounting energy demand by regional powers such as India, China, Japan, Australia and extra-regional powers like US, France, the UK and the countries in East Asia and South East Asia, the sea lines of communication and choke points of the region have become highly security sensitive. In more recent years, the role of India and the involvement of the US against the rising presence of China have combined to give rise to a new power competition targeting the most significant littoral states in the Indian Ocean, and including its small states. The evolving situation has fashioned a new power configuration between the US, China and India in the Indian Ocean. In this turbulent context, the present study seeks to analyze the contemporary dynamics and future of the Indian Ocean from political, economic and security as well as middle and small littoral states’ perspectives.