Forecasting jellyfish blooms along the Catalan coast : a citizen science-based model and an on-line app to pay it forward

Abstract

The sensitivity and specificity of the Mediterranean Sea to climate change and other human-related stressors have been unequivocally documented in recent years by a significant increase in the number and frequency of jellyfish outbreaks. To evaluate medium-term arrivals of jellyfish along the Catalan coast and in association with the Catalan Water Agency and the Rescue Services, people were trained to underwrite a citizen science-based monitoring program that has been carried out since 2007 to date. The main objective was to evaluate the presence of jellyfish along the Catalan coast from May to September with daily sampling along 243 beaches. Data from 2007 until 2013 was analyzed in association with several environmental variables to develop ensemble distribution models for two of the most common scyphozoan species (Pelagia noctiluca and Rhizostoma pulmo). Those spatially-explicit models were projected in time using data from the MyOcean program (http://www.myocean.eu/). Forecasted distribution of jellyfish along the coast was made available to the general public through the free-download mobile App (iMedJelly), providing citizens with up-to-date and validated information about real and forecasted distribution of jellyfish along the Catalan coast.