Climate change coastal management and acceptable risk : consequences for tourism

Abstract

An evaluation of the present day status of a coastline is fundamental in deciding whether to actively manage or to refrain from intervention. Unfortunately, with climate change and assessments of acceptable risk based on ongoing costs to defend, decisions need to be taken that reduce difficult and expensive decisions for future generations, i.e. sustainable management of the shoreline. The coastline provides economic opportunities, and tourism is one of the main stakeholders at risk from managed retreat and no active intervention decisions. Therefore, which aspect of risk takes priority, as barriers to effective Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) are inadequate capacity and finance? This paper shows the consequences of taking ‘managed retreat’ and ‘no active intervention’ decisions with no implementation strategy in place. The economic consequences for coastal stakeholders does not only include loss of tourism income but also assets and residential properties. Established processes for establishing risk and evidence gathering are questioned with recommendations for future strategies made. Subsequently, arguments are put forward that initial large scale assessments should be supplemented by smaller scale studies when decisions of ‘managed retreat’ and ‘no active intervention’ are proposed. Assessments should also include costs of lost business and infrastructure