| CODE | LAS2034 | |||||||||||||||
| TITLE | Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: The Role of Strategic Foresight | |||||||||||||||
| UM LEVEL | H - Higher Level | |||||||||||||||
| MQF LEVEL | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| ECTS CREDITS | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| DEPARTMENT | Centre for the Liberal Arts and Sciences | |||||||||||||||
| DESCRIPTION | The purpose of this Unit is to teach the learner the methodology of strategic foresight and how to use that methodology to identify, breakdown into their component parts and categorize current trends, to project the future evolution of those trends, and to use those projections to create alternative scenarios of the future. Mastery of this methodology will better equip the learner in making decisions in an environment of uncertainty. The instruction is built around four teaching components. The first learning component is designed to present the strategic foresight methodology and demonstrate the historical context in which it evolved and examples of its practical applications. Second, the learner will collectively engage in class exercises that are designed to break down the strategic foresight methodology and give the student practical experience in applying that specific methodology to the test cases chosen for the exercise. Thirdly, the student will be assisted in applying the strategic foresight methodology to analyze past trends, possible future trends and possible future realities for a topic/subject matter of their choosing. Finally, the student will further demonstrate their mastery of the strategic foresight methodology and how to apply it by preparing written evaluations for each one of five case studies presented in class. The Unit has four essential components: first, a review of the historical approaches to forecasting the future and how these beliefs have been shaped by the western cultural experience. Second, a presentation and analysis of the generic types of change and how they manifest themselves in the trends shaping the 21st century. Third, a presentation on the typology, identification and management of risk from both a theoretical and from a practical standpoint of formulating policy. Finally, a presentation of the methodology of strategic foresight and the practical tools with which to apply it in order to identify major trends and their subcomponents, categorize them in broad generic types of change and then project their likely development and evolution in the future in order to create different possible future outcomes. The net result of mastering the strategic foresight methodology and how to apply it will enable the learner to create a framework in which to make decisions and formulate policy in an environment of future uncertainty. Learning Outcomes: 1. Knowledge & Understanding: By the end of the Unit the student will be able to: - Explain the methodology of strategic foresight and the analytical tools for applying it to a specific case study; - For a given topic, demonstrate that they can apply that methodology to analyze historical trends, break down the components of those trends, characterize those trends in terms of generic types, and project the likely future development and evolution of those trends; - Use their assessment of how current trends could evolve in the future to identify and describe, different, possible futures and develop a narrative (a history/story) of these futures as well as identify the markers/events that can be used to indicate which of the possible futures is actually being borne out; - Apply the strategic foresight methodology to produce and present a case study analyzing current and future trends and outcomes for a specific topic/issue; - Evaluate other case studies and assess whether the strategic foresight methodology has been correctly applied and whether the resulting conclusions are consistent and defensible. 2. Skills: By the end of the Unit the student will be able to: - Demonstrate how to use the strategic foresight methodology in an organization’s strategic planning activities and policy formulation; - Develop, implement and manage an ongoing monitoring activity of significant trends in their chosen subject area and be able to update/brief senior management of those trends and their possible evolution; - Train others to use the analytical tools of strategic foresight to identify and monitor developing trends in a chosen subject area; - Use the strategic foresight methodology to author and present a case study laying out possible future scenarios, the underlying trends that are causing them and the significant markers/flags that will indicate which of the possible future scenarios is being borne out; - Continue to update case studies on an ongoing basis to insure they are current and align with current trends; - Critically evaluate competing analyses/scenarios of future trends in their chosen subject area and assess their validity. The ideal student will achieve a level of mastery of the methodology of strategic foresight that will enable them to assume a leadership role in both the task of assessing future trends and in the role of presenting decision options in an environment of uncertainty as well as to instruct others in the use of the methodology of strategic foresight. Main Text/s and any supplementary readings: Main Texts: - Gary Marx, 21 Trends for the 21st Century, Editorial Projects in Education, 2014. - Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, World Future Society, 2004. - Stephen Murgatroyd, How to Rethink the Future: Making Use of Strategic Foresight, Collaborative Media, 2015. Supplementary Readings: - George Friedman, The Next 100 Years, Anchor Books, 2010. - Oona Strathern, A Brief History of the Future, Endeavour Press, 2014. Recommended Journal Titles: - European Journal of Futures Research. - Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategy, Technology and Policy. - International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. - World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight. See also these article for examples of the application of strategic foresight to public policy, scenario planning and the management of large enterprises: - B. Habbeger, “Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands”, Futures, Volume 42, Issue 1 February 2010, Pages 49–58. - D. Mietzner, “Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight, International Journal of Technology, 2005. - R. Rohrbeck, “The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 80, Issue 8, Oct 2013, Pg.1593-1606. Required readings are available in digital format from Amazon, I Books and other digital providers. |
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| ADDITIONAL NOTES | Please note that laptop with internet access is required in class. | |||||||||||||||
| STUDY-UNIT TYPE | Lecture and Seminar | |||||||||||||||
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The University makes every effort to ensure that the published Courses Plans, Programmes of Study and Study-Unit information are complete and up-to-date at the time of publication. The University reserves the right to make changes in case errors are detected after publication.
The availability of optional units may be subject to timetabling constraints. Units not attracting a sufficient number of registrations may be withdrawn without notice. It should be noted that all the information in the description above applies to study-units available during the academic year 2023/4. It may be subject to change in subsequent years. |
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