A foresight analysis on the effectiveness of the European Fund for Strategic Investments on growth and investment in Europe

Abstract

The following dissertation focuses on the first pillar of the Investment Plan for Europe, the European Fund for Strategic Investments (the 'EFSI'). The study aims to identify and analyse factors which determine how effective the EFSI is in obtaining its goal of stimulating growth and investment across Europe. Factors which hinder the effectiveness of the EFSI and factors crucial to its success have therefore been examined. To reach the objectives of this study, several aspects of the EFSI, as well as past experiences and its current progress, have been analysed. In addition, to increase the knowledge about these aspects, as well as to identify further possible limitations and factors critical to the success of the EFSI, interviews with knowledgeable individuals on the subject have been conducted. A conference on the Investment Plan for Europe has also been attended to further gain knowledge in order to reach the objectives of this dissertation. The findings suggest that the EFSI's success depends on various factors. The main points highlighted are the process of project assessment and selection, the importance of national action and the improvement of the investment environment through structural reforms, the level of support given by the European Investment Advisory Hub to countries lacking certain expertise, the presence of National Promotional Banks in Member States, as well as the use of investment platforms and the cooperation between all the parties involved. This study concluded that even though the EFSI stands a good chance of mobilising the targeted three hundred and fifteen billion Euro (€ 315,000,000,000) of additional investment, the risk that certain countries benefit from the EFSI more proportionately than others and the risk that the projects financed do not provide additionality, still exists. Moreover, the level up to which the EFSI succeeds in mobilising further investment and in aiding to close the investment gap, will ultimately depend on the progress of the factors highlighted.