The risks of climate change on Malta’s agricultural land : a GIS-based approach

Abstract

This research investigates the extent of damage on agricultural land by potential flash flooding and projected sea level rise as a result of climate change in the northern part of Malta. This study also investigates the use of visual displays, such as maps and their effectiveness in improving farmers’ awareness and knowledge of climate change events and the subsequent impacts. This study develops a methodology for establishing affected areas, using available spatial databases, CORINE land cover map and the Land Parcel Identification System. Data was collected from primary and secondary sources. The primary focus is the collection of secondary data, including ortho-photos, elevation data, rainfall data, land use databases, geology data and rainfall data. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and the existing data, the researcher could identify the amount of agricultural lands that would be affected by flash flooding and sea level rise. Six factors, namely flow accumulation, the annual rainfall, the geology, the elevation, the slope, and the land cover, were combined in GIS in order to identify the most prone flooding areas by producing a flood map. This research study uses the inundation model, as it is relatively inexpensive and quick to run. Elevation data, agricultural lands cover and various scenarios of different heights of sea level were applied. Primary data was also gathered from twenty Northern Maltese farmers. Findings revealed that the use of geo-visualization techniques can help farmers gain more information and become more aware of the effects of the two phenomena on agricultural lands. The research suggests that national preparedness assessments, including visual displays should be adopted in order to identify areas that are at risk or vulnerable to such impacts. Despite a number of challenges, the proposed methodology can be applied to decision making in the area of climate change adaptation.