Modelling of oil spill scenarios around Maltese shores

Abstract

Oil spills can occur both from natural seeps found in areas where oil reserves are found, or from anthropogenic factors such as ship accidents. As soon as oil is spilled into the sea, various processes such as spreading, evaporation, and dispersion will start acting on it immediately. Through the use of Earth observation satellites, authorities such as the European Union and local governments, can be advised of an oil spill a few hours after this occurs. It is vital to model an oil spill once this is observed through satellites. It is also important that the authorities know where the spill is going, its current and predicted state, as well as the time by when it will get there, all of which can be achieved through modelling. The study provides various oil spill scenarios around the Maltese Islands where an oil spill is most likely to occur. The modelled spill parameters are based on typical oil that is transported in this region. The weather data that is provided to MEDSLIK is taken from a high resolution hydrodynamic model that gives a three-day forecast for the Malta Shelf Area. The modelling of the various scenarios was further mapped onto a base map showing the most important socio-economic activities on the Maltese shores and how these were affected by the various wind conditions stipulated. The northern coast is where the main harbours, bays, fish farms are situated, as well as where the largest part of the Maltese population resides. Results show that the northern coast is at a high risk and especially vulnerable if an accident occur during northerly and northeasterly winds.