Defining and assessing the risk of being harmed by climate change

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk of a population in a given territory being harmed by climate change by distinguishing between: natural factors, which are associated with inherent vulnerability; and man‐made or policy‐induced factors, which are associated with adaptation. It is argued that this distinction is useful as a methodological approach and for policy making.

Design/methodology/approach – The approach utilises indices of vulnerability and adaptation, and juxtaposes them to arrive at an assessment of risk.

Findings – The major findings of this paper are that the “lowest‐risk” or “managed‐risk” category of territories are mostly port cities in high‐income countries, whereas the “mismanaged‐risk” and “highest‐risk” category of territories are vulnerable port cities located in low‐income countries.

Originality/value – The originality of the paper is that it highlights the distinction between natural and man‐made risks in arriving at a total assessment of risk – a distinction of utmost importance for policy making. An important, although obvious, conclusion is that adaptation does not reduce the inherent vulnerability of the territories concerned, but it serves to enable humans to withstand, bounce back from or absorb the effects of vulnerability to climate change.