The economic vulnerability and potential for adaptation of the Maltese Islands to climate change

Abstract

The phenomenon of climate change is associated with potential wide-ranging effects, not least on human welfare. Increasing mean temperatures, rising sea-water levels, more pronounced temperature extremes, lower rainfall with nonetheless more intense precipitations accompanied by an increase in days of thunderstorms, increased atmospheric pollution and a reduction in daylight hours can be expected to have important economic influences as they affect production decisions and consumption patterns. The extent of economic vulnerability to climate change and the potential for adaptation depend on, amongst other things, the geographical and resource characteristics of the country or region involved, the structure of production and consumption and demographic and social considerations. The aim of this paper is to explore the potential economic vulnerability and possibilities for adaptation to climate change of the Maltese Islands. It is a contribution to the output of Working Group III: Vulnerability and Adaptation involved in the preparation of the First National Communication by Malta to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The climate change projections assumed in this paper are those developed for the purposes of the Communication, featuring overall a moderate impact of climate change including temperature increases ranging between 1 and 4 degrees Celsius and a rise in sea level of between half and 1 meter in a long term scenario. Following this introduction, Section 2 presents an assessment of the current state of the Maltese Islands in terms of their demographic and economic characteristics, together with a discussion of their likely future long-term development. The baseline scenario through which the effects of future climate changes are to be assessed should as much as possible consider the future pattern of economic activities rather than the present one. For instance, vulnerability to climate change would be high if the future development of the economy depends on the growth of a climate-sensitive sector, even though that sector may currently account for a relatively small share of economic activity. Section 3 reviews the potential vulnerability and possibilities of adaptation to climate change of small islands states in general. This is interesting because smallness and insularity are perhaps among the most important characteristics defining the Maltese economy in its relation to climate change. Section 4 brings together the findings of Sections 2 and 3 to focus the discussion of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change on Malta. From an analytical viewpoint, an assessment of the economic vulnerability to climate change can take place through two approaches. One is the evaluation of the loss of the economy‟s amenities, income and consumption welfare due to climate change. The other is based on adaptation costs associated with attempts to eliminate the negative effects of climate change, and would therefore focus on the costs of adaptation. Based on these considerations, this paper presents a qualitative assessment of the key long term climatic impacts and effects on the Maltese economy, discussing their potential severity and possibilities for adaptation. The approach used is based on the methodologies recommended by the United Nations Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is followed by a discussion on the role of quantitative estimates in the context of this study.