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Title: | Stock market predictability : non-synchronous trading or inefficient markets? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India |
Authors: | Camilleri, Silvio John Green, Christopher J. |
Keywords: | National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) Stock exchanges |
Issue Date: | 2014 |
Publisher: | Emerald Group Publishing |
Citation: | Camilleri, C. S, & Green, C. J. (2014). Stock market predictability : non-synchronous trading or inefficient markets? Evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India. Studies in Economics and Finance, 31(4), 354-370. |
Abstract: | Purpose: The main objective of this study is to obtain new empirical evidence on non-synchronous trading effects through modelling the predictability of market indices. Design / Methodology / Approach: We test for lead-lag effects between the Indian Nifty and Nifty Junior indices using Pesaran-Timmermann tests and Granger-Causality. We then propose a simple test on overnight returns, in order to infer whether the observed predictability is mainly attributable to non-synchronous trading or some form of inefficiency. Findings: The evidence suggests that non-synchronous trading is a better explanation for the observed predictability in the Indian stock market. Research limitations / implications: The indication that non-synchronous trading effects become more pronounced in high-frequency data, suggests that prior studies using daily data may underestimate the impacts of non-synchronicity. Originality / value: The originality of the paper rests on various important contributions: (a) we look at overnight returns to infer whether predictability is more attributable to non-synchronous trading or to some form of inefficiency, (b) we investigate the impacts of non-synchronicity in terms of lead-lag effects rather than serial correlation, and (c) we use high-frequency data which gauges the impacts of non-synchronicity during less active parts of the trading day. |
URI: | https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar//handle/123456789/19016 |
Appears in Collections: | Scholarly Works - FacEMABF |
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Published version of paper - unformatted - NST SEF.pdf | Main article | 867.26 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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