Identifying local climatological trends of aviation-related weather parameters

Abstract

The aviation sector is very dependent on the weather conditions over the airfields. Airlines need to be updated with the forecasts and present weather conditions over the airfields. Thus, this dissertation focuses on five meteorological parameters that are potentially dangerous for aircrafts especially when landing over the airfield. The main aims of this study were (i) to analyse the local weather trends of five weather parameters: thunderstorms, fog, hail, wind gust and 50mm or more rainfall, and (ii) to investigate whether these five parameters are increasing or decreasing. These aims were addressed through the analysis of Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs), along with the aid of interviews. Two statistical non-parametric tests, the Freidman test and the Mann-Kendall test were used. It was determined from this study that the main five weather parameters can be very hazardous for aircrafts, especially thunderstorms. It was also determined that these weather parameters lead to flight diversions and airport closure. The responses from the interviews with professional people in the aviation sector also confirmed that these parameters are hazardous for aircrafts. The study showed that an increase in the occurrence of thunderstorms and a slight increase in the occurrence of hail were noted over 56 years. The occurrence of the other parameters which include fog, wind gust, and 50mm or more rainfall resulted in a decrease over the same study period. Furthermore, the yearly data, using the Mann – Kendall test resulted in weather trends in fog and wind gust. No weather trends were resulted in thunderstorms, hail, and 50mm or more rainfall.