The euro crisis and shifts in popular euroscepticism in Southern EU member states

Abstract

The aim of this dissertation is to investigate and examine the existence of Popular Euroscepticism within the Southern EU Member States. This peripheral region of the EU was selected since the European Sovereign Debt Crisis manifested as an asymmetric shock for the EU, whereby the Southern EU MS endured more detrimental consequences to their economies. This presents an interesting case study whereby one can observe the fluctuating levels of Popular Euroscepticism in these states, and then compare the data with the timeline of economic growth of the same states, thus establishing a more nuanced understanding of the impact that periods of austerity have on the citizens’ perception of the EU. Further research is done to provide context to the case studies, since there are underlying variables that may have affected the results other than the independent (Euro Crisis) and dependent (Austerity) variables. The case studies will be inspected throughout the period 2006 to 2019 and will explore the degree to which rising levels of Popular Euroscepticism can be found coinciding with the implementation of EU-imposed austerity measures. A comparative case study using the Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) method will be used to determine the conclusions for the questions raised above. The case studies were selected for the dissertation based on three variables; they belong to the Southern European geographical region, they were members of the Eurozone by 2008, when the Euro Crisis started, and they experienced negative GDP growth to some degree. This set of criteria produced a total of six case studies: Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain. By comparing the experiences of these case studies in terms of the Euro Crisis (independent variable) and ensuing austerity measures (dependent variable), it was determined that there is indeed a positive correlation between the two. This was proven by exhibiting that levels of Popular Euroscepticism increased in every case study that was obliged to implement austerity measures. In the case of Malta, which was the only Member State at the time to not implement austerity measures (negligible cuts and reforms), there was no recorded increase in the levels of Popular Euroscepticism. In recognition of the need for a more nuanced investigation, it should be noted that this conclusion is merely indicative of a pattern and does not imply that the same rule applies to any other group of case studies in any other period. Other aspects that could have contributed to fluctuating levels of Popular Euroscepticism such as Party-based Euroscepticism, austerity measures imposed by the national governments (rather than imposed by the EU), and the national political climate, are taken into consideration in the individual case studies. This establishes a more well-rounded understanding of the circumstances that may have led to an increase in Popular Euroscepticism.