Using climate change projections to analyse the impacts on Maltese agriculture

Abstract

This research study examines the projected climate change (CC) impacts on agriculture in the Maltese islands for the years 2050 and 2070. These islands are located in the centre of the Mediterranean region and are recognised as a hotspot for CC. The study utilizes predicted changes in regional precipitation and temperature obtained from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and employs six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models that address two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as provided by the WorldClim database. By employing statistical analysis and Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the study attempts to demonstrate that CC is expected to have detrimental effects on local Maltese agriculture. By evaluating Global Circulation Models (GCMs) predictions, this study provides a robust assessment of the potential impacts of bioclimatic and physical factors on Maltese agriculture. Regardless of the RCP scenario considered, the findings suggest that the projected increase in temperature and reduction in precipitation will have significant effects on local agricultural productivity.