The effects of conflict on trade : comparative study of conflicts between Russia and post-Soviet republics

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects that violent conflict has a on trade. Specifically, in regard to situations in which Russia and post-Soviet Republics are in conflict. It is hypothesized that depending on the trade partnership—dyadic or triadic—conflict will have a different effect on trade. While it is inconclusive, how violent conflict affects trade—and how trade affects violent conflict—other insights and patterns are discerned. The characteristics of the contemporary, global economy undermine traditional perspectives of the conflict-trade nexus, calling for a revision of such perspectives. Trade lost on account of conflict is often replaced by trade with a new party, or trade levels shift with an existing trade partner. This notion as ramifications for states’ foreign policy and the issuance of sanctions.