An analysis on the effectiveness of managerial replacement in relegation-threatened football clubs in the English Premier League

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the effectiveness of managerial replacement in relegation-threatened football clubs in the English Premier League (EPL) and its impact on team performance and league retention. Managerial turnover is a common strategy among underperforming clubs and this study aims to assess whether mid-season managerial changes offer a significant advantage in helping clubs avoid relegation. Data was collected from 102 clubs over ten EPL seasons, with a focus on teams that accumulated 25 points or fewer by matchday 19. The performance metrics: Points Per Game (PPG) and Goal Difference (GD) were assessed to determine any discrepancies between before and after managerial replacement. Statistical analyses including chi-square tests and paired samples t-tests were conducted to determine whether managerial replacements led to significant improvements in performance metrics and league retention. The findings indicate a significant difference in both, average PPG and GD before and after a managerial change. The significant difference in PPG before and after change suggests that clubs generally perform better in the short-term following a managerial replacement. Similarly, the significant improvement in GD demonstrates that clubs tend to concede fewer goals and improve their goal-scoring capabilities after the leadership change. However, while the study finds that managerial changes can provide short-term performance boosts, they do not guarantee league retention. These results suggest that managerial replacement may not be the most effective strategy for clubs under relegation threat and stability might be a more effective long-term strategy. Such findings align with Gamson and Scotch’s Ritual Scapegoating Theory, as many clubs seem to dismiss managers not necessarily to improve performance but to appease stakeholders, fans, and the media by shifting blame for poor results. This dissertation provides new context to the field of managerial succession research and sets the stage for further research that explores these dynamics across European football.