The US and Iran. What just happened?

Abstract

The world has spent the past week trying to make sense of the US attack in Iraq that resulted in the killing – some would say assassination – of Iranian military commander Qassim Suleimani. The attack resulted in retaliation on the part of Iran, as well as concerns over an escalation of tensions between the adversaries. That Donald Trump is an unconventional president is not breaking news. Depending on which side of the political fence you sit, his style seems erratic or troublesome at best, while to others he is refreshing. Both Trump’s domestic audience and the international community were increasingly concerned by the motivations as well as the possible repercussions that this attack may have had. Was it a matter of impulse or a guided and precise decision based on the expertise of officials and functioning institutions? Or was it a political calculation by a president and Administration facing an impeachment trial? Immediate as well as broader, long-term questions are raised by these events. What were the motivations of the attack and how do they fit into the broader longer-term goals, vision and strategy of the Administration and indeed the United States within the Middle East?