Migrants’ role in shaping unemployment duration and labour market performance in a sustainable perspective : empirical evidence from Romania

Abstract

This study examines the key characteristics of Romanian migration in recent years, from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic to the post-pandemic era. It explores the impact of migration on unemployment duration and investigates the shaping and deterring factors of the emigration decision, with spillover effects on labour market performance. The study includes a systematic and bibliometric analysis of the scientific literature on pandemic and post-pandemic labour migration, focusing on works published between 2019 and 2024. Additionally, it features a detailed analysis through structural equation modelling of data collected by the Romanian Employment Agency (ANOFM) from January 2018 to September 2023 (12,475 observations). The findings highlight that educational background, ethnicity and age shape the emigration decision and unemployment exit due to migration for Romanian migrants staying abroad for a short time, usually less than three months, while studies and experience and the unemployment benefits/ indemnity are predominant in the emigration decision and unemployment exit for medium and long-term Romanian migrants (over three months). We highlight the skills and qualifications needed in the future globalised digital economy to increase job opportunities for migrants and facilitate their labour market insertion. Finally, the study underscores the pandemic's impact on the labour market, jobs in the European Union and Romania, and changes in international migration patterns to and from Romania.