Divergent pathways to sustainability : club convergence analysis of EU progress on the sustainable development goals

Abstract

The integration of economic growth, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability within European Union (EU) development frameworks has been strategically aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These objectives have been positioned to reinforce the EU’s welfare state model while fostering harmonization across member states. In this study, the performance trajectories of 27 EU countries from 2000 to 2023 have been assessed to determine whether convergence in SDG outcomes has occurred, and whether progress towards sustainable development has followed a common pathway. The SDG Index and data for 16 individual SDGs were analyzed using the club convergence methodology and the log t-regression test, allowing for the identification of heterogeneous dynamic patterns and latent convergence clubs. The results indicate that a singular equilibrium in SDG performance has not yet been achieved, with evidence of structural divergence across several key goals. While convergence has been observed for Goals 1, 9, 12, and 13, significant divergence persists for Goals 2, 5, 6, and 8. These findings underscore the limitations of a uniform policy approach and suggest that differentiated, context-sensitive strategies may be required to close performance gaps. The presence of club convergence further implies that member states are evolving towards distinct equilibria, shaped by domestic policy frameworks, institutional capacities, and socioeconomic contexts. This study addresses a significant gap in the literature by providing a systematic and longitudinal analysis of SDG performance heterogeneity within the EU and contributes to ongoing debates on the effectiveness of supranational sustainability governance. It is argued that recognizing and responding to these differentiated trajectories is critical for the design of targeted policy interventions capable of advancing inclusive and balanced sustainable development across the union.