The 2024 European elections and the second-order model

Abstract

This dissertation explores the applicability of the SOE model in the context of the 2024 EP elections, through a comparative analysis of Malta and the Netherlands. According to Reif and Schmitt (1980), the model shows that EP elections are perceived as less important than national elections, which results in lower voter participation, stronger performance for opposition and fringe parties, and more focus on national than European issues. The traditional assumptions of this model face challenges due to recent political developments, including rising populism, growing Euroscepticism, and increasing salience of EU-wide concerns. To evaluate these dynamics, the research uses qualitative methods supported by quantitative primary secondary data, including party manifestos, campaign narratives, Eurobarometer surveys, and official election results. The research examines how political parties framed their campaigns and voter responses to the SOE model through a comparative analysis of Malta’s centralised two-party system and the Netherlands’ fragmented multi-party system. The findings show that while several components of the SOE model continue to prevail, there are also signs of change. In particular, the increased importance of EU-level issues in the Netherlands together with changing voter motivations indicate a gradual transformation in public understanding of these elections. The study highlights that the EU needs to enhance citizen engagement while adapting its institutional approaches to match the changing voter priorities.