The EU’s normative power and enlargement to the Balkans

Abstract

This study examines the European Union (EU)’s normative power in the context of enlargement into the Western Balkans, focusing on Serbia and Montenegro as case studies. With the launch of the 2023 and 2024 Enlargement Packages, listing a majority of Western Balkan states, the Union faces the challenge of promoting its core values in preparation for membership – a challenge which is exacerbated by the fact that it faces difficulties in monitoring Member States’ adherence to democratic principles. Thus, two main research questions are tackled, namely what values form the impetus behind the EU's enlargement into the Balkans, and how democratic values are promoted in Serbia and Montenegro. These questions are answered using a qualitative case study design based on a thematic analysis, the EU’s normative values and the mechanisms through which they are promoted are explored. Thematic analysis is applied to both primary and secondary sources, including data from Eurobarometer, to understand the dynamics of formal compliance as well as social attitudes towards the EU. In order to address the first research question, Youngs’ (2004) framework was used, founded on the interwoven relationship between values and interests. The findings underline the EU’s emphasis on democratic values in its discourse, along with a prevailing focus on regional stability in practice, especially in the midst of global pressures. Moreover, the leverage and linkage models provided by Levitsky and Way (2005) were used to target the second research question. The aspect of leverage correlates to EU conditionality – through the Copenhagen Criteria – while linkage involves fostering ties with domestic actors. The EU’s norm externalisation has produced mixed results in that both states experience democratic backsliding. In terms of linkage, Montenegro has stronger ties with the Union and its values, while Serbia’s nationalist stance and pro-Russian sentiment pose challenges for deeper integration. As for leverage, implementation is often superficial in spite of formal alignment with EU norms. This is the result of the behaviour of domestic elites who seek gains from different sources, along with shortcomings in the EU’s application of conditionality — rewarding partial compliance and avoiding sanctions. Hence, the EU has had limited success in fully realising its normative ambitions. In Montenegro, issues such as corruption and autocratisation persist, in spite of progress, while Serbia is more resistant given stronger ties with Russia and domestic attitudes toward the EU. Lastly, recent developments such as Serbia’s continuing relationship with Russia and political deadlock in Montenegro underline the evolving challenges faced by the EU when it comes to these candidate states. Nevertheless, this study illustrates positive developments, such as continued political engagement and civil society movements, along with the EU’s normative ambitions, which remain central to its enlargement strategy. Although there are ample obstacles to face, such as domestic authoritarian influences, competing external actors, and even internal inconsistencies, the EU’s contributions may lead to further normative progress in the region, albeit unevenly.