Water in Malta : using system dynamics modelling for sustainable water management

Abstract

Malta, the most water stressed country in Europe, is faced with a future rife with challenges such as those caused by population growth, climate change, and overexploitation of groundwater resources. This paper uses a System Dynamics modelling approach to simulate and analyse Malta’s water infrastructure over a 100 year period (2000-2100) and tackle the problem of how water resources in Malta can be effectively managed over the coming decades. The model is built using Stella Architect and validated through historical data, expert consultation, and sensitivity analysis. Multiple scenarios are tested including climate change projections based on the RCP pathways as well as various water management strategies. Results indicate that without policy change, groundwater levels are likely to decline sharply, especially under scenarios with high-emissions or with a large agricultural sector. However, utilising a combination of targeted policies, such as increasing reclaimed water (New Water) use in agriculture and shifting Water Services Corporation’s freshwater blend further towards desalination, groundwater levels can be stabilised and in some cases even recover. This research aims to offer actionable insights for an effective water policy strategy in Malta and demonstrate the utility of System Dynamics analysis in complex environmental decision-making.