Untangling the relationship between democracy, data, and development : a dynamic two-stage analysis of the sustainable development goals

Abstract

As democratic institutions weaken globally, this paper investigates whether regime change affects statistical capacity –a country's ability to produce reliable statistics for policymaking– and whether this, in turn, affects country-level progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. While previous research has uncovered correlations between democracy and statistical performance, democracy and sustainable development, and statistical capacity and development, the causal mechanisms and sequencing of these relationships remain underexplored. Using dynamic two-way fixed effects and first-difference techniques, this study produces overall insights into statistical capacity deterioration patterns across more than 150 countries from 2016-2023. This research contributes to the understanding of the democracy-development nexus and could help inform policy interventions aimed at preserving statistical independence and integrity during periods of political instability.