Sustaining snow : historical trends and future climate impacts on snowmaking sustainability in Southeastern U.S. ski resorts

Abstract

Snowmaking has become an essential adaptation for ski resorts in the Southeast United States, where marginal winter temperatures and low natural snowfall increasingly constrain reliable operations. This study evaluates the feasibility and sustainability of snowmaking under historical and projected climate conditions across six representative ski resorts: Wisp, Snowshoe, Winterplace, Massanutten/Wintergreen, and Bryce, using NOAA hourly weather records from 2005 to 2025. The analysis used Linear regression scenario modeling to estimate 2040 snowmaking conditions under moderate and high warming scenarios. Results show available snowmaking hours reducing by 0.31-5.11% per decade, with February exhibiting the most substantial increase in both mean and cold hour wet-bulb temperatures (≤28°F/-2.2°C) of the winter months (Feb-Mar). Precipitation totals and extremes show no clear trends but remain operationally disruptive due to frequent and episodic heavy rain events. Scenario modeling suggests slight increases in Wet-bulb temperatures and proportional declines in cold hours by 2040. Interviews with snowmaking managers at Wisp, Snowshoe, and Massanutten confirm that resorts are already experiencing later openings, shorter cold spells, and growing reliance on high-capacity, automated snowmaking systems. These findings indicate that even modest warming can disproportionately affect snowmaking efficiency, resource demand, and operational stability in this ski region. The study concludes that long-term viability will depend on strategic investment in snowmaking technology, expanded water and energy infrastructure, and critical integration of on-site monitoring through summit and base weather stations.