Ukraine's pursuit of European Union membership : the Russian factor

Abstract

This thesis examines the impact of Russia's aggression on Ukraine's pursuit of European Union (EU) membership, exploring the geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions of this transformative period in Eastern Europe. Ukraine's trajectory toward EU integration has been profoundly shaped by the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the ongoing conflict in the Donbas region, and broader security threats posed by Russia. These events have forced Ukraine to recalibrate its foreign policy, shifting decisively toward the EU and NATO as vital partners for sovereignty and long-term security. Concurrently, the EU's response to the crisis has marked a significant evolution in its foreign policy and enlargement strategy, reflecting its recognition of Ukraine's strategic importance. The study employs a multidisciplinary approach, integrating theories of international relations-realism, constructivism, and neoliberal institutionalism-to analyse the interplay of security dynamics, identity shifts, and institutional cooperation. Realist theory underscores Russia's desire to maintain regional hegemony and counterbalance Western influence, while neoliberal institutionalism explains the EU's mechanisms of economic support and governance reform in stabilizing Ukraine. Constructivist perspectives highlight the role of identity, as the conflict has catalysed a profound shift in Ukrainian public opinion toward democratic values and European norms, distancing itself from Russia's authoritarian model. The findings of the research are categorized into five key areas. First, the study explores the security challenges faced by Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea, the Donbas conflict, and the hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia. These threats have accelerated Ukraine's alignment with Western institutions and underscored the critical role of the EU and NATO in supporting Ukraine's resilience. Second, the thesis analyses the economic impacts of the conflict, including trade disruptions and energy dependency on Russia, and the EU's role in mitigating these vulnerabilities through financial aid and initiatives such as the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Third, it examines the identity shifts among Ukrainians, who increasingly view EU integration as a symbol of sovereignty, democracy, and alignment with Western values. Fourth, the thesis reviews Ukraine's accelerated domestic reforms in governance, anti-corruption, and judiciary sectors, driven both by EU conditions for membership and the urgent need to demonstrate institutional resilience against external aggression. Finally, it evaluates the EU's multifaceted response to the Ukraine crisis, encompassing sanctions on Russia, political and financial support for Ukraine, and the granting of EU candidate status in 2022-a historic milestone in Ukraine's integrationjourney. The thesis concludes that Russia's aggression has paradoxically strengthened Ukraine's commitment to EU membership, catalysing reforms and aligning its policies with European standards. At the same time, the EU's response reflects a strategic shift in its enlargement and neighbourhood policies, prioritizing stability and security in Eastern Europe. This evolving partnership between Ukraine and the EU not only reshapes the region's geopolitical landscape but also underscores the EU's role as a geopolitical actor capable of addressing complex security challenges. This research highlights the broader implications of the Ukraine crisis for EU-Russia relations, European security architecture, and the future of EU enlargement. By analysing Ukraine's unique path to EU integration under conditions of external aggression, this study contributes to the understanding of how security, identity, and institutional frameworks interact in shaping foreign policy and regional stability.