The 2018-2021 sequence of referendums in New Caledonia : the uselessness of a ‘Yes/No’ referendum in divided societies

Abstract

New Caledonia was first settled around 4,000 years ago by the ancestors of today’s Indigenous Kanak population. France annexed the territory in 1853, and Kanak people only obtained citizenship after World War II. As a former settlement colony, New Caledonia remains deeply divided along political and ethnic lines: citizens of European origin generally support remaining within France, while many Kanak advocate for the independence of Kanaky. The 1998 Nouméa Agreement – negotiated by the French government, separatist leaders, and autonomist parties – established a gradual transfer of powers and provided for three self-determination referendums. Votes held in 2018 and 2020 rejected independence with 56% and 53% “No” results. However, the third referendum in 2021 took place without consensus during the COVID pandemic and was boycotted by pro-independence parties, undermining its legitimacy. Despite this referendum sequence, the core issues remained unresolved. Persistent inequalities, combined with the failure of both local and national leaders to advance an inclusive nation-building process during the 25 years of the Nouméa Agreement, created growing tensions. These culminated in deadly riots in May 2024, which devastated the economy and further weakened the fragile political framework. It is now essential to draw lessons from the shortcomings of this process.