A meteorological analysis of recent extreme weather events in Bulgaria

Abstract

Climate change is altering the background conditions in which weather and climate extremes occur, with important consequences for ecosystems, infrastructure, human health and economies (IPCC, 2021; European Environment Agency, 2025). Against this broader climatic context, this dissertation examines three recent extreme-weather events in Bulgaria: the Kresna wildfire of 24-29 August 2017, the Sofia flash flood of 6-7 July 2020, and the severe hailstorm of 29 May 2022. It adopts a comparative event-based framework to show how differing atmospheric mechanisms can generate very different hazards within the same national setting. The Kresna case is interpreted as a multi-day fire-weather episode shaped by heat, dryness, lack of rainfall and wind. The Sofia case is analysed as a localised convective flood affecting an urban environment, where the key lesson is that reanalysis point rainfall alone is insufficient to explain impact. The hailstorm case highlights the combined role of instability, moisture, vertical motion and upper-level support, with independent severe-weather sources confirming that hail occurred. Across all three cases, it is argued that reliable interpretation depends on triangulating different products rather than relying on a single model field. The findings show that Bulgarian extreme weather is best understood through hazard-specific analysis that links atmospheric conditions, local setting and impact verification. This approach offers a clearer basis for interpreting fire-weather risk, convective flooding and severe hail in Bulgaria, and it demonstrates the value of combining reanalysis, archive maps and independent event evidence in the assessment of extreme weather.