Iceland in UN climate negotiations : from unilateralism to shelter-seeking

Abstract

This article examines Iceland’s engagement in the UN climate negotiations. Drawing on negotiation and policy documents as well as interviews, we show how Iceland successfully acted unilaterally to obtain a unique exemption under the Kyoto Protocol, known as the “Icelandic exception” (formally, decision 14/CP.7). Despite this success, Iceland then shifted towards a shelter-seeking, EU-aligned approach. We argue that this strategic shift reflects a rational adaptation to structural constraints. Unilateral diplomatic action requires tremendous resources, and is only viable when the issue at stake is highly salient, no suitable shelter providers are available, and chances of success are deemed good enough, that is, when the overall context is favourable. Our analysis shows how small states’ room for manoeuvre changes over time, but also highlights how Iceland was able to use a window of opportunity to its benefit. Iceland’s case underscores the flexibility and agency of small states in multilateral diplomacy, highlighting that shelter-seeking does not eliminate influence but can amplify it under the right institutional arrangements.