Power shift in the ’new Middle Eastern cold war’ : how likely is a ‘hot war’? : an evaluation from a power transition perspective

Abstract

As the first step, the next chapter will review existing literature. It will focus on three aspects that are necessary to understand in order to answer the research question: First, the background on Saudi-Iranian relations; second, the context of this thesis, the ‘New Middle Eastern Cold War’; and third, although limited, findings on the power shift. What distinguishes this paper from previous research is that it is based on a solid body of theoretical underpinning that is often missing in the literature on the ‘New Middle Eastern Cold War’. This research paper has chosen to argue from the perspective of the ‘Multiple Hierarchy Model’ (a modified version of the ‘Power Transition Theory’) – a theoretical framework to analyse likelihood of war between a dominant regional power and its challenger – and therefore perfectly matching with the research aim. As such, this is not only a timely topic but due to its design, it is also innovative in its approach. This theory will be introduced in chapter three. The methodological chapter will introduce the research design, a combination of a case study design with mixed methods research, and conceptualize the main variables needed to apply the theory. The empirical part will be twofold, consistent with the two major trends to be analysed: Chapter five attempts to analyse the power shift from Saudi Arabia to Iran, aiming to find evidence and possible explanations. Chapter six will apply Lemke’s Multiple Hierarchy Model to the two case studies Iran and Saudi Arabia – in order to determine the likelihood of war. After an interpretation of the results, a conclusion and outlook will complete the paper.