The determinants of new orders of non-defence capital goods and its relationship to business fixed investment expenditures : 1992 to 2010

Abstract

The determinant of nonfarm nonfinancial corporation orders of nondefense capital goods (as generated by the Census Bureau) is modelled during the period of 1992 to 2010. Statistically significant relationship between investment orders and the cyclical variations in output, the interest rate spread, net cash flows, the net increase in financial liabilities, the net increase in financial assets, and the value of (nondefense) manufacturing shipments is found. During the period 1992 to 2001, the wage share is inversely related to new orders. New orders are used to explain, subject to a lag, nonfarm nonfinancial corporations fixed investment expenditures, as generated by the BEA. A statistically significant relationship is found between investment expenditures and new orders, subject to modifications by changes contemporaneous economic conditions (largely reflected in cyclical changes in output, and, to a lesser extent, changes in the interest rate spread).