Information-analytical system for forecasting indicators of the social and economic sphere of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Currently, the need for the real-time evaluation of the functioning effectiveness of the subjects of the Russian Federation is observed. To achieve this goal, the situation centers,able to perform the monitoring of the socio-economic indicators both at the federal and regional levels, are created in Russia.At the same time, it is necessary to implement the information-analytical system to make forecasts for the following periods, as well as to conduct a plan-fact analysis based on the available data, using various methods. In the framework of this study, the situation center of federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Plekhanov Russian University of Economics” (FSBEI HE "Plekhanov RUE") is considered.The development of the information-analytical system based on a hybrid forecasting model,integrated with the software of the center under consideration, is proposed by the authors.The examples of the calculations and the estimation of their accuracy and quality, obtained with the prototype of the system under development, are presented.