What future for the Iran nuclear deal?

Abstract

Since the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) was concluded, the International Atomic Energy Agency which is tasked with verification of its implementation has been regularly reporting that Iran has been adhering to the deal since it took effect1. Corresponding abolition of some sanctions and increased European economic ties to Iran followed, and the EU and the E3 - the EU countries involved in negotiating the deal - lauded the agreement as stabilizing the region, strengthening the transatlantic relations, and shoring up the global non-proliferation regime. Still, the future of the agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany is unclear and precarious. US President Trump in January 2018 set a 120-day deadline (12th May 2018) for US lawmakers and European allies to “fix” the deal, one of President Obama’s main foreign policy achievements, otherwise the US would exit the agreement.