The road to sovereignty for New Caledonia? Analysis of the November 2018 consultation on self-determination

Abstract

New Caledonia – also known as Kanaky – is a French autonomous territory in the South Pacific. As the final phase of an emancipation process that began almost 30 years ago, a first referendum on self-determination occurred on November 4, 2018. Since 56% of voters rejected separation from France in 2018, two other consultative referendums are due by 2022, the next one being organised in 2020. This paper analyses the result of the 2018 New Caledonian self-determination referendum and presents the context in which it unfolded: an archipelago where, 60 years ago, 98% of the population voted to remain a French Overseas Territory. This paper also draws out some of the key perspectives on political and institutional matters that may dominate debate in New Caledonia over the next few years.