Prediction as a part of the reader’s competence

Abstract

This research intends to help understand the process of predictions made while reading literary texts. Our starting position is grounded in phenomenological theories (Ingarden, Izer, Jaus) and supported by the general findings of the OECD/PISA study in the domain of reading literacy. The goal of this paper is to clarify the possible directions in which the readers’ horizon of expectations could develop as well as its influence on the further reception of the text (whether it does or does not coincide with the facts from further narration). The research was conducted with 28 high school students (ages 14 to 15) in Belgrade (Serbia), using qualitative methodology. With the help of individual semi-structured interviews, we guided the respondents through the sequential reading of a story selected from the PISA items (The Gift). After each paragraph, the students were invited to express their expectations about further story development, after which they continued to read until the next break. Using the qualitative analysis, we defined and scrutinized more deeply the following ways of predicting further events: a) expectations dictated by the author’s intention, b) expectations that selectively follow the intent of the text, and c) expectations which are not based on the signals in the text. The definition of the possible types of expectations, found within the story, can be useful for understanding the difficulties that students experience while trying to understand and envision literary texts they are reading.