Risk management in football : assessing the relationship between managerial succession and sporting performance in elite Premier League football clubs

Abstract

This dissertation aimed to contribute to the risk management practices in football by assessing the relationships between managerial succession and sporting performance in the top six elite football clubs in the English Premier League. Sporting performance is a key influencer of the overall organizational and financial goals of a football club, and football managers are often held solely responsible by executive board members when faced with the potential risk of failing to reach sporting objectives. This research aimed to assess if firing a manager in a football club is an effective mitigation strategy against the risks associated with an underperforming team, with the hope of shedding more light onto the implications of such a decision. Over 500 football games played by the Premier League clubs Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspurs were analyzed, and with the help of a methodology centered around difference in differences, the potential relationships between different managerial succession periods experienced by the clubs and sporting performance, were assessed. The results of the research indicated no significant relationship between victories and managerial succession, however, marginal increases in points gained and goal difference were assessed. The methodology used in the research also allowed variables which may influence the results (such as opponent strength and home advantage) to be controlled, with coefficients developed to individually assess the impact on performance of each variable. Such additions to the methodology, alongside other considerations included in the study’s demographics, allowed for a number of limitations faced by past researchers to be controlled and avoided. Such results confirmed that most managers are fired from their position as head coach to appease the traditional managerial succession theory of Ritual Scape Goating, and laid out solid groundwork for more research to be conducted in the field of succession research, and its relation to sporting performance.