Teacher requirements in the primary level

Abstract

The current qualified teacher shortage in both the Primary and Secondary levels of the Maltese educational system is of grave concern to educators in Malta since it can have serious consequences to the economic, technological, social and cultural development of the nation. This shortage is no passing phenomenon. It has roots in the past and, if nothing is done to solve this problem, it will most certainly persist in the immediate future. However, before one can attempt to solve this problem one must have an indication of what teacher requirements in both these levels will be in the future. The estimation of such teacher requirements is the main objective of this thesis. As the estimation of teacher requirements in both the Primary and Secondary levels would entail too ambitious a project in the time and space available, it was decided that this study would concentrate on teacher requirements in the Primary level only. A Primary Level Model taking into account the various pupil flows into, out and within each grade of the Primary level and teacher/pupil ratios for each of these grades was set up to provide pupil populations and associated teacher requirements for the twenty year period starting from base year 1987/88 to end year 2006/07. As the input into the Primary level five years and more from the selected base year variably depends on the number of births the corresponding number of years earlier, a Demographic Model taking account age specific birth rates and age and sex specific death, emigration and immigration rates was also set up to provide this input into the Primary level for each year in the chosen projection period. Finally, in order to cater for the evident uncertainties regarding future population growth, not one set of demographic projections, but four sets, were made. Two of these projections were designed to give an indication of the two most probable demographic scenarios in the future while the other two sets were fashioned in such a manner as to provide (improbable) upper and lower limits to future population growth. These four demographic projections gave rise to four teacher requirement projections from which a clear picture of such requirements could be obtained.