Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/83705
Title: | An analysis of economic behaviour of policy makers over the electoral business cycle in Malta |
Authors: | Fabri, Jean Paul (2005) |
Keywords: | Political business cycles -- Malta Public opinion polls -- Malta Economics -- Psychological aspects Business and politics -- Malta Political science -- Malta |
Issue Date: | 2005 |
Citation: | Fabri, J. P. (2005). An analysis of economic behaviour of policy makers over the electoral business cycle in Malta (Bachelor's dissertation). |
Abstract: | Despite the fact that theoretical research on opportunistic political cycles is very intuitive and well developed, empirical literature has found relatively weak evidence of political business cycles. This dissertation tries to reformulate the existing theory on two levels. On the empirical level, this paper tries to test the existence of very short cycles by using monthly data and examining the dynamics of 3-month moving average. Existing theoretical models of the political business cycle misspecified the interests of the primary actors - the incumbent politicians. Unlike previous theories, this dissertation argues that governments' incentives vary from election to election depending on their opinion poll standing. The main hypothesis that emerges is that the degree to which the government manipulates the economy should be thus negatively correlated with its political security going into the election. This prediction is tested by examining the role of several economic policy instruments in Malta during the elections in the period from 1996 to 2003. The main results show the existence of relatively short opportunistic cycles when the incumbent government is performing badly in the polls. Therefore the main hypothesis is confirmed. |
Description: | B.COM.(HONS)ECONOMICS |
URI: | https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/83705 |
Appears in Collections: | Dissertations - FacEma - 1959-2008 Dissertations - FacEMAEco - 1971-2010 |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
B.COM.(HONS)ECONOMICS_Fabri_Jean Paul_2005.pdf Restricted Access | 4.56 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open Request a copy |
Items in OAR@UM are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.