Forecasting behaviour in the Maltese courier service industry : examining differences between large and small firms

Abstract

This study which is based in Malta investigates differences in forecasting behaviour between large and small firms in the competitive non-reserved area of the Maltese postal service industry with respect to the forecasting process adopted (format, techniques, horizon, software and accuracy), the importance of forecasting in the decision making process and the changes in forecasting behaviour that are being considered in the light of the threats and opportunities brought about by the full liberalisation process of the Maltese courier service industry by 2013. For this purpose, the managers responsible for forecasting in the express and courier companies (N = 15) responded to a self-report questionnaire that was purposely designed for the present study. An analysis of responses revealed marked differences in forecasting behaviour between large and small firms, particularly in the forecasting process adopted (format, techniques, software and accuracy) and in the influence forecasting has on company decision making. The study also shows that a significantly smaller proportion of small companies intend to implement changes to their forecasting behaviour in view of the full liberalisation of postal services in Malta in 2013 and from those implementing a change, the same strategies are being considered – to increase the frequency of the forecasts and to increase the influence of forecasting on company action and decision making. The managerial implications of the findings are discussed.