Enhancing the relevance of horizon scanning within the scenario building process : a proposed framework

Abstract

Horizon scanning is an early-warning tool used to scope themes – potential threats and opportunities – that often lie at the margins of current thinking. The question of how organisations integrate scanning with complementary foresight approaches is largely unexplored in the foresight literature. The framework analyses how to better link the outputs from horizon scanning - which are typically presented as lists of emerging themes and weak signals largely based on expert judgement and scientific discovery - with the process of scenario development. This could be especially relevant in areas such as the natural sciences, where the disconnect between developments in science and policy is more evident.