Influenza and the implications of a pandemic for Malta

Abstract

An influenza pandemic is inevitable and recent reports from Southeast Asia on avian influenza viruses infecting humans have served to fuel worries that a new pandemic is near. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the epidemiological and public health aspects of seasonal, avian and pandemic influenza through a literature review and to describe the possible effects of an Influenza pandemic on Malta using the FluAid model. The results of the model indicate that between 158 and 454 deaths would be expected for a 12-week pandemic causing clinical symptoms in 25% of the population. There would be between 432 and 1,488 hospitalisations and between 40,483 and 74,704 general practice consultations. Although the results of the model show a wide range of estimates and are limited by a lack of local parameters, the data presented in this article shows the severe effect of a pandemic on the Maltese health care system and will be useful for pandemic planning. Further research needs to be undertaken to determine local parameters to improve the model estimates and local health authorities need to ensure that adequate resources are provided to implement an effective pandemic preparedness plan.