Influences of social and spatial factors on crime patterns in Szczecin, Poland

Abstract

PURPOSE: The aim of this research is to identify socio-economic determinants of crime at an intraurban scale. To achieve this goal, the following two research questions were formulated: Which types of crimes are determined by socio-economic variables on a intraurban scale? Which socio-economic variables determine crime the most?

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The study's design and methodology for the City of Szczecin involved systematic data collection from formal repositories (Szczecin City Police Headquarter, Szczecin City Hall, Municipal Family Support Center in Szczecin, Poviat Employment Office in Szczecin, and the Topographic Geodatabase for the City of Szczecin) covering 37 neighborhoods over 2015-2017. Backward Stepwise Regression, assessed the impact of multiple independent variables on each dependent variable. Model adequacy was ensured by iteratively refining variables until meeting predefined criteria: R² ≥ 0.5, p < 0.05, and VIF < 5.0. Variable selection considered literature and data availability, with separate analyses for each dependent variable, and subsequent presentation of models meeting the criteria.

FINDINGS: This study help to understand the relationship between different types of crimes and socio-economic factors in city neighborhoods. This approach identifies key variables that significantly affect crime intensity. The research contributes to urban crime prevention by emphasizing the importance of targeted socio-economic policies and planning. It suggests addressing alcohol outlet density, unemployment, and social assistance programs to effectively reduce crime in urban areas.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The research results facilitate the formulation of several recommendations for policymakers aimed at crime prevention and reduction. The appropriate shaping of social policy, coupled with strategic spatial planning and development, are potent tools for reducing crime rates and enhancing safety levels in urban areas.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The article presents the results of own desk research. The issue presented has not previously been addressed in discussions published internationally.