The influence of migration on Malta’s demographic transition : an observational study

Abstract

The demographic transition model (DTM) refers to the historical change from elevated birth and high death rates to low birth and low death rates in more advanced and higher education societies with higher levels of economic development. Malta is a small, central Mediterranean country (population ≈ 500,000) with a high influx of workers. This study was carried out to ascertain secular trends in births in Malta by nationality of mother, including age standardised fertility rates, population levels and employment trends. The study design uses ecological methodology. Births, age-specific fertility rates (ASFR), population and employment data were analysed for 2000-2020. Total births increased from 4,311 in 2000 to 4,420 in 2021 (p = 0.0001) as did proportion of nonMaltese births from 5.2 to 46.7% (p < 0.0001). Maltese ASFR only was in significant decline (p = 0.0003). Total population increased from 388,759 in 2000 to 520,971 in 2022 (p < 0.0001) as did the proportion of nonMaltese workers, which increased from 2.2% in 2000 to 20.6% in 2022 (p < 0.0001). Maltese and non-Maltese, part-time and full-time employment rates significantly increased (p < 0.0001). The proportion of non-Maltese increased for part-time and full-time workers also increased (p < 0.0001). Fertility is falling almost globally with ageing population and declining births and populations. In Malta, domestic labour supply cannot keep up with an influx of foreign workers, weathering its demographic transition at the expense of a rapidly expanding population but the long-term results are of significant concern as infrastructures may not cope and a substantial worker efflux for whatever reason could potentially precipitate a significant economic downturn.