AI-enabled tactical FMP hotspot prediction and resolution (astra) : a solution for traffic complexity management in en-route airspace

Abstract

The air traffic growth expected for future years will likely cause an imbalance between traffic demand and available capacity. This could lead to increased airspace congestion, heightened complexity, and a higher workload for controllers attempting to manage the situation. Nowadays, available tools can identify 4D Area of Relatively High Air Traffic Control Complexity (4DARHAC) events up to 20 min before they occur. Nonetheless, state-of-the-art Artificial Intelligence applications can significantly increase this prediction horizon. Powered by a combination of different Machine Learning models, the ASTRA solution aims to both detect and provide resolution strategies for 4DARHACs up to 1 h before onset. To validate ASTRA’s operational concept, a series of workshops and interviews with Flow Management Position operators were conducted, focusing on assessing the initial concept and identifying end user needs. The feedback collected was validated by a board of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) and transformed into a concrete set of functional and non-functional requirements. Overall, ASTRA’s operational concept was endorsed as a promising solution for reducing airspace complexity while alleviating operator workload during the tactical phase of operations. Experts further highlighted the importance of integrating ASTRA with existing Flow Management Position software tools to maximize its operational impact and facilitate adoption.