The impact of global stock market indices on national GDP : an empirical analysis of the S&P 500, CAC 40, and Nikkei 225 (2014-2023)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between three prominent global stock market indices, Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500), Cotation Assistée en Continu 40 (CAC 40), and Nikkei 225 and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States, France, and Japan, respectively, over the period from 2014 to 2023. This research uses empirical analysis where the correlation and regression analysis of these three investment market indices and the GDP of those three nations is done. Based on the results of this research, we can say that the S&P 500 index has a significant impact, explaining approximately 80% of the variation in the GDP of the United States, while the other two indices, Nikkei 225 and CAC 40 have shown a positive statistical relationship with the GDP of Japan and France, accounting for 42% and 51% of GDP variance, respectively. This research also examines some of the roles of factors, such as the power of financial markets as economic indicators, while acknowledging the role of other macroeconomic indicators, including unemployment and inflation. Adjustments for inflation and currency ensure consistency across datasets. These results can be used to create strategies that develop stability and economic growth, improving risk management and the development of investment strategies. This study also reflects the function of fiscal regulations in eliminating the negative influences of unstable markets on financial performance. It is recommended that future researchers use other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rates, inflation and research in other countries to obtain a more detailed picture about aspects which can impact economic growth.