Brexit and international road freight transport to and from the UK by Polish and Irish transport companies

Abstract

PURPOSE: The aim of this article is to determine whether there has been a significant change in the volume of international road freight transport to and from the United Kingdom carried out by Polish and Irish hauliers after Brexit.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: A thorough analysis of changes in freight volumes (in thousands of tonnes) was conducted on a quarterly basis – before and after 2021. To determine whether there was a statistically significant difference related to the new economic, legal, and logistical situation resulting from Brexit, data published by the UK Department for Transport were used. The data was coded such that a "1" was assigned to negative change (i.e. crisis) and a "0" to all other cases. To assess the significance of differences between two proportions, a quantitative methodology based on the likelihood ratio and Fisher’s exact test were adopted.

FINDINGS: In the first quarter of 2021, the transportation of goods from the UK by crosstrade trucks decreased by 52% and 37%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2017 for vehicles registered in Poland and Ireland. At the same time, transportation to the UK fell by 32% and 27%, respectively. In the context of negative changes related to Brexit, significant discrepancies were identified in the area of transport by Irish-registered trucks (trucking to and from UK) and cross-trade transport from the UK in the case of Polishregistered trucks and to the UK in the case of Irish carriers.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The results are important for identifying challenges and adjusting transport strategies, particularly in the event of further changes in the terms of trade between the EU and the UK. They are also useful for developing Brexit-related recommendations in the area of transport policy and road transport regulation.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The study’s value lies in the use of reliable national statistics combined with the small-sample dependence testing method.