A series of unfortunate events : the COVID-19 crisis and Tunisia’s democratic backsliding

Abstract

On 25 July 2021, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied dismissed the government, suspended parliament and revoked the immunity of its members. Coming after a major hike in Covid-19 cases had caused significant public anger over the government’s handling of the pandemic, Saied’s move initially enjoyed substantial support within the country’s population. Following his power grab, Saied began to reverse a decade of democratic progress in the only Arab country that saw a sustainable transition following the 2011 uprisings. This democratic backsliding is often seen as a result of Tunisia’s structural socio-economic and political crises, which had eroded public confidence in the political class and the democratic institutions. In contrast, this article argues that it is better characterised as a ‘freak accident’, meaning that it was enabled by a series of highly improbable circumstances that culminated in a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. In doing so, the article shows that democratic backsliding is not always the result of deliberate authoritarian strategy or deep-rooted structural challenges, but can emerge from a rare, contingent convergence of events, developments, and the ways in which different actors respond to them.