The impact of the EU-MERCOSUR agreement on soybean meal and corn feed markets in the EU and Poland

Abstract

PURPOSE: This paper concerns an analysis of the complex impact of the EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement on the EU and Polish feed raw materials market, with particular emphasis on imports of soybean meal and maize (corn) in the period 2015-2024.

APPROACH/METHODOLOGY/DESIGN: A detailed analysis of the directions and scale of supplies from South American countries was carried out, while the degree of geographical concentration of imports was assessed using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). In addition, the volatility of CIF and FOB prices of these commodities was examined in the context of global market turbulence, including wars, logistical disruptions and exchange rate fluctuations.

FINDINGS: The analysis highlights the European Union's increasing dependence on Brazil and Argentina as key suppliers of protein feed components and the associated risks of supply concentration and vulnerability to market and political disruptions. Of particular note in the article is an assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the rescheduling of import origins and the growing importance of MERCOSUR countries. In addition, the importance of new EU environmental regulations, including the EUDR, which is aims to reduce imports of raw materials linked to deforestation, is discussed, posing additional regulatory and operational challenges for the feed market.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The paper presents scenarios for market and political developments following the ratification of the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, taking into account possible impacts on security of supply, competitiveness of local producers and compliance with sustainable development policies.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The paper thus provides a multidimensional and up-to-date perspective on the complex trade relations and their consequences for the feed industry in Poland and Europe.