Predictive modeling of aviation crash sites located within Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco waters during a World War Two wartime context

Abstract

The dissertation’s aim was to predict underwater aircraft crash sites off the coast of North Africa and Southern Sicily through examination of archival research, various credible sources, and spatial analysis of data. The focused chronology of the dissertation was specifically during World War II’s Operation Torch and Operation Husky. A good understanding was established through the historical context of both of these operations. The study looked at many different variables in order to explain how and why crash sites were occurring, as well as accumulating within specific areas (both operations landing areas). Collected data was implemented into Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and was specifically used to predictive model, which would in turn, furthered the understanding of accumulations of crash sites. Once the landing areas were determined to have a significant amount of high-probability of crash sites, supported by the research and collected data, they were analyzed in order to prove the value of surveying them. Once those distinctions were made, the dissertation shifted its focus to showing how these areas could be feasibly surveyed through underwater investigation techniques. The results of the desk-based research, methodology, and digitizing of the data was thoroughly presented and discussed. The dissertation concludes with further research, limitations, and the importance of locating the underwater crash sites. The goal that was reached within the dissertation was to not only find areas that have a high probability of discovering unknown crash sites but also to provide further research of aviation studies, underwater aviation studies, and ultimately aid in the hope of locating missing servicemen.